Iran may destroy Israel if U.S. attacks Damascus, Syria

Iran considers Syria as its important ally and has stated that attack on Damascus will be regarded as an attack on its province and may lead to immediate destruction of Israel. We should take Iran's words serious, because they consider Syria as its buffer zone and understand that if Syria falls, it will be only a matter of time before Iran will fall, as well.

Military attack on Syria will skyrocket oil prices

You don't have to be a genious to guess that US War with Syria would dramatically increase global oil prices. Even speculations about possible military attack have already led oil prices to a six-month high ($117 per barrel).  Financial analysts suggest that in the event of large scale military attack oil price could climb up to $150 per barrel, but only if it leads to disruption of production in the region.

Some of you, who follow Syrian news are already aware that currently Syria exports only 50 000 barrels per day. Taking into account that global oil consumtion rate is aprox. 92 000 000 barrels per day thats just peanuts, but there is a catch. Although Syria on a global scale is a dwarf, we have to bare in mind psychological factors and the role of forex markets. Daily turnover of forex market is worth of billions and even trillions of dollars. Large part of these deals is speculations by large hedge funds and investment banks. These institutions do they best to earn on fluctation of prices. U.S. or U.S. led coalition led war with Syria would be a perfect pretext for such actions.

Of course, if oil prices will ris, we cannot blame only global investors. There is always a chance that conflict could spillower to neighbouring countries - Turkey, Israel and Lebanon. However, if we concentrate only on oil market than most greatest danger would pose interruption of oil production in Iraq, which currently produces 3% of global oil consumption.

The Dark Horse - Iran

Irans leadership has already warned against military attack on Syria. In the last two years Iran has provided a masive financial and military support to Syrian government. Although Irans new president  Hassan Rouhani is much more moderate than his predecessor there is still a slight chance that Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz. Such action would be very risky and could lead to direct conflict with the U.S. , but in todays world of interdependence there are so many factors and actors, that we cannot outlaw such possibility.

Lets hope there will be no war with Syria and the conflict will find peacefull solution.

Syrian government rejects use of chemical weapons against its own population

Syrian foreign minister Walid Mualllem, when speaking in Damascus rejected claims that Syrian government has used chemical weapons against the opposition. 


As noted before, the U.S. officials have already stated - there is undeniable proof of a chemical attack, however this information has not been approved by the U.N. inspection visiting Syria at present moment. However, it also well known that inspection could not visit several suburbs due to several sniper attacks. If rebells are so keen on international help, why do they keep blocking international inspection visit to their controlled areas ? 


Although it is doubtfull the U.S. would risk to start new war with Syria without bullet proof evidence regarding the use of chemical weapons, there is also a slight chance somebody is just trying to play hero at costs of others. Experience in Iraq proved that we can not believe everything politicians are saying. Lets hope this time they say the truth.

The US is preparing for War in Syria

The US officials claim to have evidence about how Syrian goverment has launced an attack against its population outside the Damascus. It is planned that the evidence could be released after a few days. Taking into account recent US expierience in Iraq war, the evidence has to be very trustworthy. It seems everybody still remembers that Iraq war was started based on wrong claims of weapons of mass destruction.

How long would military action take ? 

Syria Crisis began in March 2011 some month after Arab Spring changed regimes in several other countries. Since than the World has been witness of Syrian Civil War, but now the red line has been crossed. It is said - Syria has used Chemical Weapons against its own citizens. US is preparing to use all means necessary for stopping the Government of Syria. 

Its is hard to believe US would risk to take boots on the ground. However, preemptive attack from cruise-missile-armed destroyers in the Mediterranean Sea is the most likely Option. How long will it take ? In Kosovo bombings continued for 10 month. Syrian War might take much longer.

What do experts say ? 

Three countries - Britain, France and Turkey have already showed interest in participating in military action. Although the US could easily win the battle on their own, winning the military battle is just a half step. Expierience in Afghanistan and Iraq shows that post-war reconstruction takes way much longer than expected and is much more expensive than planned. In this context, the US cannot allow itself to take military action on its own. 

On the other hand, it is 100% clear that United Nations Security Council will not be ready to agree on any military intervention. Russia sees Syria as its second buffer zone and has warn against any military resolution of the conflict. Furthermore, Iran is well aware about the fact, that if Syria falls it is only question of time, when Allied forces would intervene in Iran as well.

The Role of The U.N. inspection

Currently the U.N. experts are unable to prove that chemical attacks have been implemented by the Assad regime. One, the most important question that also has not been answered is - Why would Syrian Government launch a chemical attack against the oppositon, if it is well aware that such actions could cross the red line established by international community. Before any certain evidence have been found there role and responsibility of U.N. experts becomes even greater.

What US officials are saying