Military attack on Syria will skyrocket oil prices

You don't have to be a genious to guess that US War with Syria would dramatically increase global oil prices. Even speculations about possible military attack have already led oil prices to a six-month high ($117 per barrel).  Financial analysts suggest that in the event of large scale military attack oil price could climb up to $150 per barrel, but only if it leads to disruption of production in the region.

Some of you, who follow Syrian news are already aware that currently Syria exports only 50 000 barrels per day. Taking into account that global oil consumtion rate is aprox. 92 000 000 barrels per day thats just peanuts, but there is a catch. Although Syria on a global scale is a dwarf, we have to bare in mind psychological factors and the role of forex markets. Daily turnover of forex market is worth of billions and even trillions of dollars. Large part of these deals is speculations by large hedge funds and investment banks. These institutions do they best to earn on fluctation of prices. U.S. or U.S. led coalition led war with Syria would be a perfect pretext for such actions.

Of course, if oil prices will ris, we cannot blame only global investors. There is always a chance that conflict could spillower to neighbouring countries - Turkey, Israel and Lebanon. However, if we concentrate only on oil market than most greatest danger would pose interruption of oil production in Iraq, which currently produces 3% of global oil consumption.

The Dark Horse - Iran

Irans leadership has already warned against military attack on Syria. In the last two years Iran has provided a masive financial and military support to Syrian government. Although Irans new president  Hassan Rouhani is much more moderate than his predecessor there is still a slight chance that Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz. Such action would be very risky and could lead to direct conflict with the U.S. , but in todays world of interdependence there are so many factors and actors, that we cannot outlaw such possibility.

Lets hope there will be no war with Syria and the conflict will find peacefull solution.